Which state will have the highest voter turnout on Nov. 6? History suggests it will be one of the following six.
Using data from the United States Elections Project at George Mason University in Virginia, the Monitor ranked the states by their average turnout as a percentage of eligible voters (the voting age population excluding ineligible felons and noncitizens) for the past six elections.
On average, about half (51.6 percent) of eligible US voters cast ballots, but six states averaged more than 60 percent. The policies and attitudes in these states may hold lessons for those trying to get out the vote around the country.
Here is a countdown to the top states in voter turnout.
6. Oregon
Oregon is one of two states that employ a vote-by-mail only system. Voters receive an information pamphlet three weeks before the election, followed a few days later by their ballots. With an average voter turnout of 60.13 ? 8.5 percentage points above the national average ? the system is working for Oregonians.
?There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that we see high turnout because of vote-by-mail,? says Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown. ?It?s extremely convenient and accessible; it?s secure and cost-effective.?
Oregonians passed a referendum in 1998 to institute the vote-by-mail system ? with almost 70 percent approval.
Secretary Brown rejects the criticism that mail-in ballots diminish the sense of civic engagement people may feel standing in line with their fellow citizens on Election Day. She says Oregonians have block parties and talk to their neighbors; issues are discussed in churches and synagogues.
?Civic engagement is much more meaningful and expansive when you have a ballot in hand for 2-1/2 weeks,? Brown says. ?Election Day is not just one day ? it?s several.?
Another criticism of mail-in ballots is that there is more opportunity for voter fraud. Since 2000, 15 million ballots have been cast by mail in Oregon, but there have been only nine convictions of voter fraud, Brown says. The state takes extensive measures to ensure that ballots are secure: each envelope has a unique barcode, election officials verify every signature, and there are cameras in every election office to monitor the counting. People can also check online to make sure their ballot was counted.
Voter outreach is another factor at play in Oregon, says Michael Slater, executive director of the nonprofit Project Vote and a Portland resident. Campaigns can check to see if people have voted, and encourage them to cast their ballot.
?People knock on my door and ask if I need my ballot delivered,? Mr. Slater says. ?It?s a very helpful way to keep people engaged.?
5. South Dakota
One of three Upper Midwest states with high voter turnout, South Dakota?s high average ? 60.17 percent ? comes from a history of civic engagement and competitive politics in the state.
?South Dakota is part of the collection of Upper Midwest states where a strong sense of community, civic duty, and civility in political discussion are abundant,? Bryan Dettrey, an assistant professor at the University of South Dakota, writes in an e-mail. ?These cultural factors contribute to higher levels of turnout.?
The history of civic engagement in South Dakota can be traced back to the Populist movement in the early 1900s, when farmers banded together to support progressive agrarian policies and candidates for governor and Congress. This movement planted the seeds for interest and mobilization in politics, says Eric Ostermeier, a research associate at the University of Minnesota?s Humphrey School of Public Affairs.
?Voting behavior in a culture or community is an acquired habit,? Dr. Ostermeier says. ?It doesn?t begin or end with one election cycle ? it is generations in the making.?
Competitive races also drum up more voter interest, Ostermeier says. He points to the 2004 US Senate race, when then Senate majority leader Tom Daschle (D) lost to the Republican candidate John Thune. Senator Thune defeated Senator Daschle by 2 percentage points, and it was the first time a sitting Senate majority leader had been defeated in 52 years, reported The New York Times.
Additional factors contribute to South Dakota?s high turnout, according to Dr. Dettrey. New voters can register up to 15 days before the election. The state uses ballot measures ? such as requiring the government to balance the budget or using tax revenues to give teachers bonuses ? which give voters a greater voice in government. The state has also made strides in increasing turnout among Native Americans.
4. Alaska
Alaska?s eligible voter turnout rate ? 60.42 percent ? is attributed to competitive gubernatorial and senatorial races in the past several elections.
Carl Shepro, professor emeritus at the University of Alaska, Anchorage, suggests that voter interest ?hinges on the candidates rather than any state laws.?
In Alaska?s most recent US Senate race, sitting Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) won as a write-in candidate, beating Republican Joe Miller, who defeated her during the primary. Senator Murkowski was the first write-in candidate elected to the Senate since 1954, reported The New York Times.
Murkowski appealed to Alaska?s nonpartisan and undeclared voters ? more than half of registered voters ? in order to defeat Mr. Miller, a tea party favorite backed by former Gov. Sarah Palin, Shepro says. She also received support from the Alaskan Native population: Turnout in the North Slope borough was 90 percent.
Also making Alaska?s elections more competitive ? there is always a third-party candidate running, usually from the Alaskan Independence Party. Shepro says those candidates don?t get a lot of support, but they do help balance the state?s majority Republican Party, which has twice as many registered voters than do Democrats.
Convenience is another factor at play in Alaska ? as the state offers early (in-person or by mail) and absentee voting. Also, any registered voter can apply to have a ballot faxed to them. The ?electronic transmission ballot? is due by 5 p.m. on Election Day, according to Alaska?s Division of Elections.
3. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is the second Upper Midwest state with high voter turnout ? 60.93 percent over the past six elections ? and the only battleground state on this list.
The state shares similar characteristics to its regional neighbors (like South Dakota) with a history of political participation and competitive state and national races, says Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota.
Wisconsin?s history of civic engagement began with the Progressive Party, which supported farm and labor union rights and generated numerous close elections between the 1920s and 1940s, Dr. Ostermeier says.
Political participation and voting has become almost an expected behavior.
?People want to live up to the expectation for themselves or community norms,? says Michael Slater of Project Vote. ?They think, 'voting is what we do in this community.' ?
Another reason for Wisconsin's high voter turnout: allowing new voters to register and vote on Election Day. Same-day registration is the biggest factor in generating high voter turnout as it generates a possible voter increase of 10 percent, Ostermeier says.
Nine states have same-day registration, and some opponents of the policy say it could increase voter fraud, according to Project Vote.
Same-day registration benefits students and low-information voters ? those who don't pay attention early in the campaign, says Ostermeier.
?Having the ability to vote at the last minute helps the process if one believes that democracy is as many people being able to vote as possible,? he says.
Wisconsin?s high voter turnout is also a result of intensely competitive elections in recent years. Most notably 2010, when the state Senate and governor?s office switched to Republican control. In the presidential elections since 1998, Wisconsinites voted Democratic. But several Republican rising stars are gaining more support in the state and on the national political stage: Gov. Scott Walker won a competitive recall election in June and Rep. Paul Ryan is the vice presidential candidate.
2. Maine
Maine was the first state to institute same-day registration in 1973, which is a main reason for its 62.1 percent average turnout. But not all politicians support the policy.
Republicans in the state legislature amended the state?s voter registration laws, requiring that new voters register two business days before the election. Gov. Paul LaPage approved the amendment in June 2011.
But opponents of the amendment ? forming the Protect Maine Votes coalition ? worked to put a question on the 2011 referendum ballot, gathering more than 70,000 signatures in less than a month, according to the Bangor Daily News.
Question 1 on the referendum election ballot asked: ?Do you want to reject the section of Chapter 399 of the Public Laws of 2011 that requires new voters to register to vote at least two business days prior to an election??
Mainers voted 60 percent in favor of repealing the amendment, restoring the state?s same-day registration system.
?It?s not just a law,? says Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota. ?How the population defended same-day registration speaks to the culture in the state and its pride in high voter turnout.?
In addition to same-day registration, competitive gubernatorial races have also contributed to high voter turnout.
In the 2010 election, independent candidate Eliot Cutler narrowly lost to Governor LaPage. Mr. Cutler lost by 1.7 percentage points, or about 10,000 votes.
?Strong independent candidates in high-profile races are more competitive,? says Ostermeier. ?A third-party candidate with a legitimate chance of winning brings out those voters who have been turned off by the increasing polarization of the two-party system.?
1. Minnesota
The third Upper Midwest state on the list, Minnesota has had the highest voter turnout in 12 of the past 16 elections, including the past eight straight. Minnesota?s average eligible voter turnout in the past six elections ? 67.6 percent ? is 16.4 percentage points higher than the national average.
Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie attributes the state?s consistently high rating to state policies and an emphasis on reducing barriers to voting access.
The most effective policy is same-day registration, Ritchie says.
?It?s clearly a critical factor,? he says. ?Election Day registration can increase voter turnout by 500,000 people in a presidential election year. And more than 60 percent of Minnesotans have taken advantage of it in their lifetime.?
When Ritchie was elected secretary of state six years ago, he focused on educating Minnesotans on the ?nuts and bolts? of voting. Election officials go to high school civics classes or assemblies, and they bring voting machines to the state fair to show people how easy it is.
Beyond policies that enable higher turnout rates, Ritchie says Minnesotans are very patriotic. Minnesota was among the first states to respond to President Lincoln?s call for troops during the Civil War. Voting touches deeper motivations of service and stewardship.
?Minnesotans do love this place we call home,? Ritchie says. ?It?s our responsibility to take care of this place, and voting is one of the ways we do that.?
Minnesota also has a history of third-party candidates winning high offices and close elections: Jesse Ventura?s 1998 gubernatorial victory for the Reform Party and the contested 2008 Senate race between Al Franken (Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party) and Norm Coleman (Republican).
?Minnesota is a state firing on all cylinders,? Michael McDonald, associate professor at George Mason University, writes in a 2010 US Elections Project report. ?The prescription for higher levels of voter participation in the United States is thus clear. Do what Minnesota does: make it easy for people to vote, educate your citizenry, and hold interesting elections.?
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